📊 Investment Research Report

A Unified World View for 2026-2029

📅 February 9, 2026 📋 Version 2.4 🔬 AI-Assisted Research
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This document is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Part 1: Macro Environment

February 2026. The world has changed more in the past 18 months than in the previous decade. AI went from research curiosity to the largest capital expenditure cycle in history.

🏛️ Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates
3.50-3.75%
Fed Funds Rate
-175bp
From 2023 Peak
55%
Base Case Probability

Rate Cut Timeline

DateChangeNew Level
Sep 2024-50bp4.75-5.00%
Nov 2024-25bp4.50-4.75%
Dec 2024-25bp4.25-4.50%
Sep 2025-25bp4.00-4.25%
Oct 2025-25bp3.75-4.00%
Dec 2025-25bp3.50-3.75%

Key Development: Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Fed Chair. His "interest-rate agenda" may signal a different approach to monetary policy.

Fed Policy Outlook 2026-2029

  • Base Case (55%): 1-2 more cuts in 2026, terminal rate ~3.0-3.25%
  • Bull Case (25%): Inflation falls to target, 3-4 cuts, rates reach 2.75%
  • Bear Case (20%): Inflation re-accelerates, cuts paused
📈 Inflation Outlook
MetricReadingDateTrend
CPI (Headline)2.7% YoYDec 2025⚠️ Sticky
CPI (Core)2.6% YoYDec 2025⚠️ Sticky
PCE (Headline)2.8% YoYNov 2025⬆️ Rising
Next CPI ReleaseFeb 13, 2026
Next PCE ReleaseFeb 20, 2026

Structural Inflation Drivers

  • Deglobalization: Supply chain reshoring adds 1-3% to manufacturing costs
  • Energy Transition: Green infrastructure requires massive capex
  • AI Infrastructure: Trillions in spending creating demand
  • Defense Spending: Geopolitical tensions driving budgets globally
  • Labor Scarcity: Demographics tightening labor markets
Key Insight: We're likely to remain in a 2.5-3.5% inflation regime. This "new normal" favors real assets, pricing power, and companies that can pass through costs.
💵 US Dollar Outlook
~108
DXY Index
$5,094
Gold Price
$64.81
WTI Oil

The combination of elevated dollar AND elevated gold is unusual. It suggests global uncertainty and inflation hedging, not pure risk-on or risk-off. Markets are hedging multiple scenarios simultaneously.

Dollar Forecast

  • 2026: Range-bound with downside bias as Fed cuts
  • 2027-2028: Gradual depreciation toward DXY 95-100
  • Long-term: Structural concerns about fiscal trajectory
📉 Recession Probability

Labor Market Indicators (December 2025 — BLS)

IndicatorReadingSignal
Unemployment Rate4.4%⚠️ Rising (was 4.2%)
Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)+50,000⚠️ Very Weak
2025 Total Job Gains584,000⚠️ Avg ~48k/month
Part-time (Econ Reasons)5.3M⚠️ +980K YoY
Long-term Unemployed1.9M⚠️ +397K YoY

The Picture: The labor market is cooling—perhaps faster than the headline unemployment rate suggests. Job gains have decelerated dramatically (48k/month in 2025 vs. 200k+ in 2023). This is late-cycle behavior.

Recession Probability Assessment

TimeframeProbabilityConfidence
Next 12 months25-30%Medium
Next 24 months35-40%Medium
2026-2029 period50-55%Low
🌍 Key Geopolitical Risks

Trump Administration 2.0 — Policy Developments

  • Immigration Crackdown: Massive deportation operations underway; ICE arrests increasing
  • Greenland Tensions: US-EU relations strained; "Boycott USA" apps gaining traction in Europe
  • Trade Policy: Universal tariffs remain primary economic tool

Tier 1 Geopolitical Risks (Market-Moving)

  • Taiwan Strait: 5-15% conflict probability over 4 years — Un-hedgeable beyond avoiding China/Taiwan exposure
  • Iran Instability: US-Iran nuclear talks in progress; Middle East escalation risk elevated
  • Japan Political Shift: PM Sanae Takaichi represents significant conservative shift
  • North Korea: Kim Jong Un preparing party congress (late February)
📊 Market Regime Assessment
6,973
S&P 500
17.05
VIX (Low)
~23x
P/E (TTM)

Market Regime: Late-Cycle Expansion with AI Exceptionalism

  • Economic growth positive but moderating
  • Inflation elevated but (barely) controlled
  • Labor market showing cracks
  • AI investment providing offsetting growth engine
  • Valuations elevated; Mag 7 concentration extreme

Valuation Assessment

MetricCurrent10Y Avg25Y Avg
P/E (TTM)~23x19.5x18.0x
P/E (Forward)~20x17.0x16.0x
CAPE~35x28x25x
VIX at 17 = protection is cheap. That's the time to buy insurance, not when the house is already on fire. Fair value S&P: 5,500-6,000. Upside: 7,500 if AI delivers. Downside: 5,000 in recession.

Part 2: World View & Investment Narrative

🔄 The Three Great Restructurings

⚡ Energy Restructuring

The world needs to double electricity generation by 2040. This isn't climate politics—it's physics and math:

  • AI compute requires unprecedented power density (10x a Google search per query)
  • Electrification of transport adds massive baseload demand
  • Reshoring of manufacturing brings industrial demand back
The energy transition is not about replacing fossil fuels—it's about adding massive new capacity while maintaining reliability.

🌎 Geopolitical Restructuring

The "peace dividend" era (1991-2020) is definitively over:

  • US-China decoupling is structural, not cyclical
  • Russia's isolation from Western systems is permanent
  • Supply chains reorganizing around "friend-shoring"

Why Mexico & LATAM Win:

  • 8-hour trucking vs 30+ day ocean freight from Asia
  • Time zone compatibility with US
  • 65M+ US Hispanic population creates natural bridge
  • USMCA framework, shared security interests

🤖 Technology Restructuring

AI is not like mobile or cloud. It's faster, broader, more capital-intensive, and more concentrated.

Two Phases of AI Value Creation:

  • Phase 1 (Current): Infrastructure Build-out — $650B+ annual capex building chips, data centers, power
  • Phase 2 (End Game): AI On-Demand — Inference as a Service, ubiquitous intelligence at marginal cost approaching zero
The company that owns the inference API owns the customer relationship—forever. Training is a fixed cost; inference is recurring revenue that scales with adoption.
🗺️ The 25 Theses Framework

Category A: The AI Stack

ThesisCore Idea
AI Infrastructure (Build-out)Chips, memory, power — the current capex phase
AI On-Demand (Inference)The end-game: inference as a service, platform value
Data Center InfrastructureThe physical layer of digital economy
On-Device AI (Edge)AI everywhere, not just cloud
Value InnovatorsAI-enhanced moats, not AI disruption
Quantum ComputingThe 10-year option

Category B: Energy Renaissance

ThesisCore Idea
Nuclear/Uranium RenaissanceThe comeback kid of energy
Copper & Critical MineralsThe new oil
Natural Gas & LNGThe transition fuel that won't quit
Clean EnergyDeflationary forces at work

Category C: Geopolitical Realignment

ThesisCore Idea
Defense & GeopoliticalEnd of the peace dividend
LATAM Fintech (Nearshoring)Mexico's moment
IndiaThe next China (but different)
Vietnam & Southeast AsiaManufacturing diversification play
China TechThe contrarian play

Category D: Healthcare & Demographics

ThesisCore Idea
GLP-1s & Metabolic HealthThe biggest healthcare innovation since statins
Longevity/Anti-AgingThe next frontier in healthcare

How These Theses Connect

  • AI → Energy → Minerals: The AI build-out requires energy requires copper/uranium. Single supply chain.
  • Geopolitics → Supply Chains → LATAM/Asia: US-China tensions drive nearshoring drive Mexico/India opportunity.
  • Technology → Applications → Consumer: The AI stack enables consumer innovators who disrupt legacy industries.
  • Demographics → Healthcare → Longevity: Aging populations drive healthcare spending drive longevity research.

Part 3: Thesis Deep Dives

Core Conviction (8.0+) 🎯 Highest Conviction Theses

AI Infrastructure (Build-out) 8.5/10

📦 ETF: SMH (VanEck Semiconductor), AIQ (Global X AI & Tech)

We are witnessing the most significant infrastructure buildout since the internet era. Hyperscalers are deploying unprecedented capital—over $650B projected for 2026 alone.

Why This Thesis Matters: This is the foundational investment thesis of the decade. Every subsequent wave of AI value creation depends on the physical layer being built right now. The visibility is exceptionally high—when NVIDIA reports $53B in free cash flow, that's not a model—it's cash in the bank.

2026 Capex Commitments

Company2026 CapexYoY Change
Amazon$200B+75%
Alphabet$175-185B+110%
Microsoft$80-90B+60%
Meta$65-75B+50%
TOTAL~$525B++65%

Top Investment Ideas

TickerCompanyMkt CapFCF net SBCFCF YieldRev Gr YoYConv
NVDANVIDIA$4.65T$71.3B1.53%+114%9/10
GOOGLAlphabet$3.93T$48.3B1.23%+14%7/10
MSFTMicrosoft$3.07T$65.2B2.13%+15%8/10
AMDAMD$353B$5.1B1.44%+24%7/10
MUMicron (HBM)$436B$370M0.08%+62%8/10
VSTVistra (Power)$48B$1.8B3.75%+8%8/10
ANETArista Networks$178B$3.1B1.74%+20%7/10
VRTVertiv (Cooling)$78B$1.3B1.67%+25%7/10

NVDA: Undisputed leader in AI accelerators with 80%+ market share. CUDA ecosystem creates multi-year switching cost moat.

MU (Micron): Pure-play on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). HBM revenue grew 400%+ YoY. US-based, benefiting from CHIPS Act.

VST (Vistra): Owns largest fleet of natural gas peaker plants in Texas (ERCOT), where AI data centers are being built.

Bull Case: AI is the new electricity. Winner-take-most dynamics create durable moats.

Bear Case: DeepSeek efficiency shock showed 10x efficiency possible; custom chip commoditization eroding NVIDIA margins.

AI On-Demand (Inference) 7.5/10

📦 No pure-play ETF exists yet

While the current AI capex cycle focuses on training models, the long-term value accrues to whoever controls the inference layer. Training is a one-time cost; inference is recurring revenue that scales with adoption.

Think of AI On-Demand as "AI as utility." The company that owns the inference API owns the customer relationship. OpenAI's API, Google's Vertex AI, Amazon's Bedrock, Microsoft's Azure OpenAI—these are the tollbooths of the AI economy. — Per Ben Thompson, Stratechery

📝 AI On-Demand vs On-Device — Understanding the Difference

This is a critical distinction that many investors conflate. These are two complementary approaches, not competitors:

AspectAI On-Demand (Cloud)AI On-Device (Edge)
Where it runsCloud servers (AWS, Azure, GCP)User's device (iPhone, laptop, car)
LatencyHigher (network round-trip)Lower (local processing)
PrivacyData goes to cloudData stays on device
Cost modelPay per query (API pricing)One-time (hardware purchase)
Model sizeLarge models (175B+ parameters)Smaller models (7B-30B parameters)
Best forComplex tasks, enterprise, researchPersonal assistants, privacy-sensitive, real-time
LeadersGOOGL, MSFT, AMZNAAPL, QCOM

Why Both Matter — The Hybrid Future:

  • Apple leads on-device: 2B+ devices with Neural Engine. Apple Intelligence runs locally first.
  • Google/Microsoft lead cloud: For complex reasoning and enterprise workflows.
  • Future is hybrid: Simple queries on-device, complex queries to cloud.

Top Investment Ideas

TickerCompanyRoleConv
AAPLAppleApple Intelligence + Neural Engine (on-device moat)8/10
GOOGLAlphabetVertex AI + Gemini (most advanced proprietary models)8/10
MSFTMicrosoftAzure OpenAI + Copilot (enterprise distribution)8/10
AMZNAmazonBedrock + Anthropic partnership7/10
METAMetaLlama ecosystem (open-source moat)6/10

Why Apple is Core: AAPL controls the entire stack—silicon (Neural Engine), OS (iOS/macOS), and distribution (2B+ active devices). Apple Intelligence runs on-device: zero latency, maximum privacy, no cloud dependency.

Bull Case: Inference will generate 10x more revenue than training over the AI lifecycle. Platform owners capture recurring revenue with improving margins.

Bear Case: Open-source models (Llama, DeepSeek) commoditize inference. Chinese alternatives price-disrupt the market.

Nuclear/Uranium Renaissance 8.0/10

📦 ETF: URA (Global X Uranium), NLR (VanEck Uranium+Nuclear)

Nuclear is experiencing its most significant resurgence since the 1970s. The "aha moment" came when Microsoft agreed to pay Constellation to restart Three Mile Island.

Why This Thesis Matters: Nuclear is the only carbon-free 24/7 baseload power source. Big Tech needs guaranteed power for data centers that can't tolerate intermittency. Nuclear is the only technology that satisfies both ESG commitments AND reliability constraints.
94
US Operating Reactors
~$100/lb
Uranium Spot Price
50M lb
Annual Supply Deficit

Top Investment Ideas

TickerCompanyMkt CapFCF net SBCFCF YieldRev Gr YoYConv
CEGConstellation Energy$98B$3.0B3.06%+5%8/10
CCJCameco$52B$964M1.85%+28%7/10
VSTVistra$48B$1.8B3.75%+8%8/10
SMRNuScale Power$4.8BN/AN/APre-rev5/10

CEG (Constellation): Owns the largest nuclear fleet in the US—23 reactors across 14 plants. When Big Tech needs nuclear PPAs, Constellation is the first call.

CCJ (Cameco): Premier pure-play uranium miner. Controls 18% of global production with highest-quality deposits in Canada.

Why Nuclear Over Natural Gas for AI Power

FactorNuclearNatural Gas
EmissionsZero carbonStill fossil fuel (~50% of coal)
Reliability24/7 baseload, 90%+ capacity factorIntermittent dispatch, 40-50% factor
Price StabilityFixed fuel cost for decadesVolatile commodity exposure
AI CompatibilityConsistent power for always-on computePrice/supply volatility disrupts planning

Big Tech Is Voting with Contracts: Microsoft (20-yr PPA with Constellation), Google (500MW with Kairos Power for SMRs), Amazon ($500M in X-energy). Not one major tech company has signed significant long-term deal with LNG for data center power.

High Conviction (7.0-7.9) 📈 Strong Theses with Specific Risks

GLP-1s & Metabolic Health 7.0/10

📦 ETF: XBI, IBB

GLP-1s deliver 15-25% weight loss—approaching surgical results. Peak sales: $100-150B by 2030. 42% of Americans obese; 650M+ globally could benefit.

TickerCompanyMkt CapFCF YieldRev GrConv
NVONovo Nordisk$166B~5.0%+26%8/10
LLYEli Lilly$993B0.31%+32%7/10
HIMSHims & Hers$4.3B4.19%+69%6/10

⚠️ Risk Update (Feb 2026): HIMS launched low-cost Wegovy copycat. NVO down 21% on forecast cut. Compounding pharmacy competition intensifying.

🏛️ TrumpRx Pricing Pressure (Feb 5, 2026)

The Trump administration announced "Most-Favored-Nation" pricing deals with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, dramatically reducing costs for American patients:

DrugOld PriceNew PriceDiscount
Wegovy (NVO)~$1,350/month$199/month85%
Ozempic (NVO)~$1,000/month$350/month65%
Zepbound (LLY)~$1,000/month$299/month70%
Medicare GLP-1sVaries$50/month

Impact Assessment — Uncertain:

  • ⚠️ Margins fall short-term: 65-85% price cuts will compress gross margins significantly
  • Volume should surge: At $199/month, millions more Americans can afford Wegovy. TAM just got bigger.
  • 🤝 Voluntary agreement: Companies agreed—wasn't forced regulation. They modeled the tradeoff.
  • 📊 Watch unit volume: If prescriptions double/triple, thesis intact. If +50%, margins won't recover.

Investment Implication: This is NOT a "sell immediately" event. It's a "watch Q2/Q3" event. Position sizing should reflect uncertainty.

Copper & Critical Minerals 7.0/10

📦 ETF: COPX, PICK

Copper is the "metal of electrification." EVs use 4x more copper. Supply constrained for 10-15 years. Goldman Sachs calls copper "the new oil."

Top Pick: FCX Freeport-McMoRan ($87B, $1.37B FCF, 7/10 conviction)

Bull Case: Electrification is structural; supply inelastic; AI/data centers are new demand.

Bear Case: China slowdown (50%+ of demand); recession demand destruction.

Data Center Infrastructure 7.0/10

📦 ETF: VPN, SRVR

AI racks generate 10-30kW vs 5kW traditional. Liquid cooling now mandatory. Power is the binding constraint—makes existing capacity more valuable.

TickerCompanyFCF YieldRev GrConv
VRTVertiv1.67%+25%7/10
EQIXEquinix4.40%+7%7/10
ANETArista1.74%+20%7/10
CRWVCoreWeaveN/A+737%6/10

CRWV in hypergrowth with massive capex. Backed by NVIDIA ($2B investment Jan 2026).

Robotics & Automation 7.5/10

📦 ETF: ROBO, ARKQ

Three forces converging: Demographics (labor shortages), Reshoring (automation required), AI Capability (robots can now handle variability).

Top Picks: TSLA (Optimus), ISRG (Intuitive Surgical), ROK (Rockwell)

Note: Moved to Watchlist in portfolio—thesis strong but pure-play investments haven't proven economics yet.

Medium Conviction (6.0-6.9) ⚖️ Solid Opportunities with Higher Risk

Consumer Innovators 6.5/10

AI-enhanced moats, not AI-threatened. Proven FCF generators trading at reasonable valuations.

TickerCompanyFCF YieldRev GrWhy Selected
DUOLDuolingo5.04%+40%40% profit margin, AI-generated lessons at marginal cost
ZETAZeta Global3.83%+28%235M+ consumer data moat, irreplicable
HIMSHims & Hers4.53%+69%Telehealth + pharmacy moat (💰 value opportunity)
OSCROscar Health15.18%+56%Tech-native health insurer, $516M FCF

Excluded: Chegg (AI-threatened), The Trade Desk (30x revenue), Teladoc (execution issues), Clover Health (questionable unit economics)

LATAM Fintech 6.5/10

650M underbanked population. Nearshoring megatrend strengthens thesis. 8-hour trucking vs 30+ days from Asia; time zone compatibility; 65M+ US Hispanic bridge.

TickerCompanyMkt CapProfit MarginRev GrConv
NUNubank$86B40%+38%7/10
MELIMercadoLibre$102B8%+37%6/10
STNEStoneCo$4.8B~1%+22%5/10

NU: 100M+ customers across Brazil, Mexico, Colombia. $9+ ARPAC (average revenue per active customer).

Natural Gas & LNG 6.5/10 Tactical

📦 ETF: FCG

Transition fuel of the 2020s. US LNG capacity doubling through 2028. European energy security permanent shift.

TickerCompanyFCF YieldRoleConv
LNGCheniere4.35%LNG export leader7/10
EQTEQT Corp6.86%Largest US gas producer7/10
CTRACoterra6.09%E&P diversified7/10
ETEnergy Transfer5.17%Midstream (7.4% div)7/10
WMBWilliams4.50%Midstream7/10

Defense & Geopolitical 6.5/10 Tactical

📦 ETF: ITA, XAR

Peace dividend is over. US FY2026 budget: $886B. Lockheed backlog: $194B. NATO Europe spending up 18% in 2025.

Top Picks: LMT (Lockheed), RTX, NOC (Northrop)

⚠️ Why Tactical: Much of the re-rating already happened post-2022. Valuations elevated. Strong hold, not aggressive add.

On-Device AI (Edge) 6.5/10

📦 ETF: SOXX, SMH

Massive upgrade cycle: every phone, laptop, PC will need AI-capable chips within 3-5 years.

TickerCompanyFCF YieldRev GrConv
AAPLApple2.76%+4%7/10
QCOMQualcomm6.71%+17%7/10
GOOGLAlphabet1.23%+14%6/10

Part 4: Top Picks Ranking

🏆 Top 10 Investment Theses (February 2026)
#1
AI Infrastructure (Build-out)
Technology Restructuring — $650B+ capex cycle, $53B NVDA FCF
8.5/10
#2
Nuclear/Uranium Renaissance
Energy Restructuring — Only 24/7 carbon-free baseload
8.0/10
#3
AI On-Demand (Inference)
Technology Restructuring — End-game platform value
7.5/10
#4
GLP-1s & Metabolic Health
Healthcare & Demographics — $100B+ market by 2030 (TrumpRx: watch volume)
7.0/10
#5
Copper & Critical Minerals
Energy Restructuring — "The new oil"
7.0/10
#6
Data Center Infrastructure
Technology Restructuring — Picks and shovels
7.0/10
#7
Consumer Innovators
Technology Restructuring — AI-enhanced moats
6.5/10
#8
LATAM Fintech
Geopolitical Restructuring — Nearshoring beneficiary
6.5/10
#9
Natural Gas & LNG
Energy Restructuring — Transition fuel
6.5/10
#10
Defense & Geopolitical
Geopolitical Restructuring — Peace dividend over
6.5/10
💰 Top 20 Individual Stocks by FCF Yield

Ranked by FCF Yield (FCF net of SBC / Market Cap). Measures cash generation efficiency per dollar invested.

RankTickerCompanyMkt CapFCF net SBCFCF YieldThesis
1OSCROscar Health$3.4B$500M14.71%Consumer Innovators
2EQTEQT Corp$35B$2.4B6.86%Natural Gas
3QCOMQualcomm$149B$10.0B6.71%Edge AI
4CTRACoterra$23B$1.4B6.09%Natural Gas
5DUOLDuolingo$5.4B$260M4.81%Consumer Innovators
6LMTLockheed$147B$6.6B4.49%Defense
7LNGCheniere$46B$2.0B4.35%Natural Gas
8EQIXEquinix$84B$3.6B4.29%Data Centers
9HIMSHims & Hers$4.3B$180M4.19%Consumer Innovators
10WDCWestern Digital$98B$3.7B3.78%AI Memory
11VSTVistra$48B$1.8B3.75%Nuclear/Power
12ZETAZeta Global$4.2B$145M3.45%Consumer Innovators
13CEGConstellation$98B$3.0B3.06%Nuclear
14AAPLApple$4.0T$110B2.75%Edge AI
15MSFTMicrosoft$3.1T$65B2.10%AI Infrastructure
16CCJCameco$52B$964M1.85%Uranium
17ANETArista$178B$3.1B1.74%Networking
18VRTVertiv$78B$1.3B1.67%Data Centers
19NVDANVIDIA$4.65T$71.3B1.53%AI Infrastructure
20FCXFreeport$92B$1.0B1.09%Copper
🎯 "If I Could Only Own 10 Stocks" List
#TickerThesisFCF YieldWhy
1NVDAAI Infra1.53%Dominant AI chips; 80%+ GPU share
2GOOGLAI + Cloud1.23%Diversified AI: Gemini, TPUs, Cloud
3CEGNuclear3.06%Largest US nuclear fleet; MSFT 20yr PPA
4MSFTAI Infra2.13%Azure AI, Copilot, enterprise moat
5QCOMEdge AI6.71%Snapdragon NPUs; auto opportunity
6ANETData Centers1.74%30% hyperscaler networking share
7LMTDefense4.49%$194B backlog; bipartisan support
8NULATAMN/A100M+ customers; 40% profit margin
9EQTNatural Gas6.86%Largest US gas producer
10DUOLConsumer4.81%40% profit margin; AI-enhanced moat

Part 5: Portfolio Construction

📊 Core Holdings (80-90% of Invested Capital)

Tier 1: Highest Conviction (45-55%)

Hold through drawdowns. These are the foundation.

ThesisAllocationPrimary VehiclesWhy Core
AI Infrastructure (Build-out)18-22%NVDA, MU, ANETProven demand, $53B FCF, irreplaceable
AI On-Demand (Inference)8-10%AAPL, GOOGL, MSFTOn-device + cloud platform winners
Nuclear/Uranium8-10%CEG, CCJ, URA24/7 baseload, supply deficit structural

Tier 2: High Conviction (25-30%)

Strong theses with specific risks requiring moderate sizing.

ThesisAllocationPrimary VehiclesWhy Core
GLP-1s5-7%NVO, LLY$100B+ market, proven efficacy (TrumpRx: watch volume)
Copper & Critical Minerals4-6%FCX, COPXElectrification structural, supply constrained
Data Centers5-7%VRT, ANET, EQIXPicks-and-shovels, agnostic to winners
Consumer Innovators3-5%DUOL, HIMS, OSCRAI-enhanced moats, proven FCF
LATAM Fintech3-5%NU, MELINearshoring + underbanked + proximity

Tier 3: Tactical Core (10-15%)

ThesisAllocationPrimary VehiclesEntry Trigger
On-Device AI3-4%AAPL, QCOMiPhone upgrade cycle
Natural Gas/LNG4-6%LNG, ET, WMBEuropean security premium
Defense4-6%ITA, LMTNATO rearmament cycle
📋 Watchlist (Monitoring for Entry)

Not currently held. Monitoring for better entry points or thesis confirmation.

High Priority Watchlist

ThesisTarget AllocVehiclesEntry Trigger
Robotics & Automation4-6%ROBO, ISRG, TSLAHumanoid proof-of-concept; labor shortage acceleration
Cybersecurity2-3%PANW, CIBRValuation compression (CRWD at 40x not 75x)
India2-3%INDA, SMINValuation correction (currently 25x+ forward P/E)

Opportunistic Watchlist

ThesisTarget AllocVehiclesEntry Trigger
SE Asia (ex-Indonesia)2-3%VNM, EWMVietnam fab progress; Malaysia data center growth
Space Economy1-2%RKLB, ASTSStarlink competition clarity
Longevity0-1%N/A (mostly private)First clinical trial success

Speculative Watchlist (0-2% positions max)

ThesisNotesEntry Trigger
China Tech (KWEB, BABA)Geopolitical risk; Taiwan scenarioMajor discount + policy clarity
Bitcoin (IBIT)Volatility requires timingBelow $50K; sentiment capitulation
SMRs (SMR, OKLO)Pre-revenueFirst commercial deployment

💵 Dry Powder (10-20%)

Always maintain cash/T-bills for opportunities. Current target: 12-15%.

  • Market correction >10%: Deploy 50% of cash into Core Holdings
  • Market correction >20%: Deploy remaining cash
  • Watchlist item hits entry trigger: Fund from dry powder, not by selling Core
⚠️ Risk Management
When VIX is low (<18)—like now—protection is cheap. That's when you buy insurance, not when the house is already on fire.

Portfolio Protection Framework

VIX LevelHedge AllocationComposition
<153-5%SPY puts, VIX calls
15-202-3%Balanced
>250-1%Let expire; don't add

Concentration Limits

ConstraintMaximum
Single stock8%
Single thesis20%
Correlated themes (AI complex)35%
Single country (ex-US)10%
Speculative positions combined10%
Cash + hedges minimum5%

Thesis-Specific Kill Scenarios

ThesisKill Scenario
AI InfrastructureDeepSeek efficiency shock; capex ROI disappoints
NuclearSafety incident; SMR execution failures
DefenseBudget politics; program delays
GLP-1sTrumpRx volume doesn't offset price cuts; competition
CopperChina demand collapse; recession
LATAMCurrency crisis; political instability
ChinaTaiwan military action
Bitcoin80% drawdown; regulatory crackdown

Rebalancing Triggers

TriggerAction
Position up >50%Trim to original weight
Position down >30%Reassess thesis; add if intact, exit if broken
Position >8% of portfolioMandatory trim
Position <1% of portfolioExit or size up (no orphans)
📦 Thesis ETF Quick Reference
ThesisPrimary ETFTickerExpense Ratio
AI InfrastructureVanEck SemiconductorSMH0.35%
Nuclear/UraniumGlobal X UraniumURA0.69%
DefenseiShares Aerospace & DefenseITA0.40%
RoboticsROBO Global RoboticsROBO0.95%
CopperGlobal X Copper MinersCOPX0.65%
Data CentersPacer Data & InfrastructureSRVR0.60%
Natural GasFirst Trust Natural GasFCG0.60%
Edge AIiShares SemiconductorSOXX0.35%
IndiaiShares MSCI IndiaINDA0.64%
VietnamVanEck VietnamVNM0.66%
CybersecurityFirst Trust Nasdaq CyberCIBR0.60%
China TechKraneShares China InternetKWEB0.69%
BitcoiniShares Bitcoin TrustIBIT0.25%
📅 Key Dates & Catalysts

Q1 2026

DateEventImpact
Feb 11Vertiv Q4 EarningsData center demand
Feb 13CPI Release (Jan)Inflation trajectory
Feb 20PCE Release (Dec)Fed's preferred measure
Feb 25NVIDIA Q4 EarningsAI demand barometer
Feb 26Cheniere Q4 EarningsLNG outlook
MarchFed FOMC MeetingRate path update

2026-2029 Key Milestones

  • Three Mile Island restart progress
  • First SMR commercial deployments (if on track)
  • Vietnam chip fab progress
  • Europe 2% NATO spending compliance
  • US Midterm Elections (November 2026)
  • Bitcoin halving (2028)
  • US Presidential Election (2028)
  • LNG export capacity doubling completion